Product Management and The Fog of War

I often think about product management through the lens of “the fog of war.” In military terms, it describes the uncertainty around your own forces, the enemy’s strength, and what they intend to do next. In games like Command & Conquer, it’s the blacked-out map hiding enemies and terrain until you explore.

That same fog exists in product work:

1. Uncertainty about our own capability — “Will what we build actually win customers?”

2. Uncertainty about competitors’ capability — “What if they ship something faster and better?” (ChatGPT flashbacks, anyone?)

3. Uncertainty about competitors’ intent — “What are they planning next?”

These unknowns can paralyze planning or push us to prioritize out of fear instead of facts.

My rule: act only on what we truly know about our users, our business, and the data in front of us. Never let the fog dictate decisions.

For execution, I tell teams our project plans are “road signs into the fog.” We define the direction and the first few clear steps based on current knowledge, then treat the plan as a living document. At my current company, we use SharePoint where the whole team has edit access. We don’t pretend to map the entire journey upfront—there’s too much unknown. Instead, we keep refining it together as we move forward and the fog lifts.

Next time you’re in planning, pause and ask: Am I being guided by real knowledge about our customers and business, or by fear of the unseen? Where am I trying to chart unexplored territory too early? Focus on the next right step, move forward, and trust that clarity comes as you go. The fog always lifts eventually—but only if you start walking.